基于多元线性回归理论的煤矿突水预测  

Prediction of Mine Water Inrush Based on Multiple Linear Regression

作　　者：公衍伟[1] 蒋承林[1] 吴爱军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学安全工程学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2012年第3期112-114,共3页Coal Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2006CB202204-3)

摘　　要：为了有效地预测矿井突水,降低矿井生产中的危险,基于多元线性回归的方法,研究了影响煤矿突水的主要因素,包括断裂构造、底板含水层岩溶发育程度、水压、底板隔水层的厚度等,得出了突水量与其影响诸因素之间的线性回归方程。通过突水模型的建立及其实践的检验,证明此类线性回归方程能够很好地预测出煤矿突水事故的发生,具有较高的理论和实用价值。In order to predict mine water inrush effectively to reduce the risk of mine production, based on the method of multiple linear regression, this article researches the major factors that influence mine water inrush, including faults, karst development degree of floor aquifers, water pressure, thickness of floor aquifuges, etc. The results show the linear regression relationships between water irruption quantity and its influencing factors. The establishment of water Inrush model and its empirical testing prove that this linear regression equation can well predict the mine water inrush, has a high theoretical and practical value.

关 键 词：多元线性回归 最小二乘法 影响因素 煤矿突水 突水量 

分 类 号：TD74[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]