基于可计算一般均衡模型的能源价格变动对新疆经济的影响  

The Impact of CGE-Based Energy Price Changes on Xinjiang's Economy

作　　者：黄蕊[1] 王铮[1,2] 刘昌新[2] 雷军[3] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080 [3]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《生态经济》2012年第4期52-57,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于国土分异机制的区域协调管理模式研究"(70933002);中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-YW-XB2-01)

摘　　要：基于通用可计算一般均衡(CGE)平台,探讨了能源价格变动对新疆地区宏观经济的影响。模拟结果显示:(1)煤炭价格和天然气价格分别上涨10%以后,新疆地区的GDP、各部门的产出和居民消费变动不大,说明提高煤炭和天然气价格不会对新疆经济造成大的波动,未来新疆地区能源价格改革应从煤炭和天然气入手。(2)油价上涨10%后,新疆地区部门产出和居民消费变化较大,因此未来新疆地区在提高油价时应考虑社会稳定,避免产生大的经济波动。值得注意的是提高油价后,城乡收入差距缩小。总体来说提高油价所产生的影响是积极的。Based on the system analysis, we build a model system which is suitable for the analysis of current C policy in Xinjiang first. Then based on system, we discuss the macroeconomic impact of energy price changes on Xinjiang using the data of Xinjiang Input-Output table in 2002 and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook. Simulation results show that： （1） After coal prices and natural gas prices rose by 10%, respectively, the Xinjiang＇s GDP, each sector＇s output,and laousehold consumption haven＇t changed a lot, indicating the increase of coal and natural gas prices will not cause large fluctuations on the economy of Xinjiang, in future Xinjiang should start with coal and natural gas reform energy prices; （2） After oil prices rose by 10%, Xinjiang＇s sectoral output and household consumption changes a lot, so in the future social stability should be considered t9 avoid large fluctuations in the economy when improving oil prices in Xinjiang. It is noteworthy that after increased oil prices, the urban-rural income gap reduced. Overall, the impact of increased oil prices is positive.

关 键 词：能源价格 可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型 新疆 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F224