承德市近58年降水序列多时间尺度分析  

Multi-time-scale Analysis of the Precipitation Series in Chengde in Recent 58 Years

作　　者：张月丛[1] 张才玉[2] 成福伟[1] 孟宪峰[1] 杨依天[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北民族师范学院,河北承德067000 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2012年第9期5578-5581,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河北省高等学校自然科学研究项目(Z2009202)

摘　　要：[目的]分析承德市近58年降水序列的变化规律。[方法]利用墨西哥帽小波,对承德市1951～2008年逐月降水数据进行多尺度分析,揭示了承德市降水变化多时间尺度的复杂结构,分析了不同时间尺度下降水序列的变化周期和突变点,并确定了各序列中存在的主周期。[结果]降水在年代际尺度(10年以上)上存在高低值中心;年际尺度(10年以下)上振荡复杂多变,但4年尺度有明显的高频振荡。4年降水周期在小波方差分析中得到了验证,M-K检验也印证了小波分析的结论。[结论]从干湿交替的情况可以判断,多雨年份明显减少,且当前降水仍然偏少。[ Objective ] The research aimed to analyze variation rule of the precipitation series in Chengde City in recent 58 years. [ Method ] Mexican hat wavelet was used to analyze the multi-scale characteristics of the monthly precipitation data in Chengde from 1951 to 2008. We re- vealed multi-time-scale complex structure of the precipitation change in Chengde, analyzed the change cycles and mutation points of the precip- itation series under different time scales, and identified primary periods in different series. [ Result] There were high/low value centers of the precipitation in interdecadal scale （more than 10 years）. In interannual scale （below 10 years）, oscillation was complex and variable, but 4- year scale had obvious high-frequency oscillation. Wavelet variance verified existence of the 4-year precipitation cycle, and M-K test also con- firmed conclusions of the wavelet analysis. [ Conclusion] We could judge from alternating wet and dry conditions that the wet years decreased significantly, and the current precipitation was still less than normal.

关 键 词：小波分析 降水 M-K检验 承德市 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]