基于CA的土地利用动态演变预测研究  

Forecast of Land Use Dynamics Based on Cellular Automata

作　　者：崔旭忠[1] 赵方胤[2] 

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学土木工程学院,山东烟台264025 [2]山东师范大学人口资源与环境学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2012年第9期5707-5709,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40571119);山东省自然科学基金项目(Y2007E05)

摘　　要：基于元胞自动机的原理,提出了一种从历史地图数据中挖掘状态转换规则,并根据蒙特-卡罗法预测未来时刻单元状态的方法。实例应用表明,利用空间数据挖掘状态转换规则的方法,在模拟土地利用动态演变中具有简单、准确、实时性强等优点,实现了从地图到地图的空间动态预测,其结果与实际大致相符,可以为土地利用规划提供参考。Based on the principles of cellular automata, this paper brings up a new method that mines the state change rules from historical map data and then forecasts the further state of a certain time point according to the predication method of Monte - Carlo. As indicated by the example application, the method of mining the state change rules by the spatial data is simple, accurate and real - time in simulation of the land use evolution, the method realizes the spatial dynamic forecast from map to map, and its results coincide with the reality and can be pro- vided as a reference for land use planning.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 状态转换规则提取 空间动态预测 土地利用 

分 类 号：S-01[农业科学] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]