汶川地震灾区泥石流危险性评估——以都江堰—汶川公路为例  

Hazard assessment of debris flow in severely-afflicted area by Wenchuan Earthquake: A case study along Dujiangyan-Wenchuan Highway

作　　者：韩用顺[1] 李龙伟[1] 朱颖彦[2] 孔亚平[3] 李志强[3] 黄鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学建筑与城乡规划学院,湖南湘潭411201 [2]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都610041 [3]交通运输部科学研究院交通环保与安全研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《中国水土保持科学》2012年第1期6-11,共6页Science of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"地震次生山地灾害风险评价关键技术研究"(40901273);西部交通建设科技项目"震后灾区公路走廊次生灾害危险性评估"(2008-318-221-96);中科院知识创新工程重要方向项目"重大山地灾害综合风险分析的理论与方法"(KZCX2-YW-Q03-5);湖南科技大学2011年研究生创新基金项目"基于GIS技术的震区都汶公路泥石流灾害风险评价"(S110127)

摘　　要：公路泥石流危险性评估是震区道路交通防灾减灾和重建规划的重要基础性技术工作之一。选取都江堰—汶川公路沿线28条泥石流沟为研究对象,运用遥感和GIS技术进行数据处理与综合分析,采用灰色关联分析法进行评价因子遴选和权重确定,进行各条泥石流沟危险度计算,完成震区都江堰—汶川公路沿线泥石流危险性评估。结果表明:1)都江堰—汶川公路沿线28条泥石流沟大部分处于高度危险以上、占总数的78.57%,极高危险区占总数的25%;2)饵沟、牛圈沟、磨子沟危险性最大,其次是高店子沟、马埝坪沟和一碗水沟;3)基于灰色关联分析法的多因素评价方法,能较好地确定评价因子及其权重、并计算出泥石流危险度,具有一定实用性。研究结果可为灾区防灾减灾管理、灾后恢复重建和道路交通选线设计提供必要的依据和参考。Hazard assessment of debris flows along highway is an important technological foundation for preventing mitigating traffic geo-hazards and for reconstructing planning destroyed traffic infrastructure by earthquake.In this paper,28 debris flow gullies along Dujiangyan-Wenchuan Highway（abbreviated to Du-Wen Highway） were taken as research objects.Corresponding geographical information and thematic hazards data were collected,and they were processed and analyzed through remote sensing,GIS technology.Assessment factors were selected and respective weights were determined by means of grey correlation analysis method.Meanwhile,a hazard assessment model of debris flow was established and applied to assess the hazard of 28 debris flow gullies along Du-Wen Highway.The findings show that： a） most of 28 debris flow gullies belong to high severely high risk zones with 15 high risk gullies and 7 severely high risk gullies,that is,78.57% of total gullies;b）The highest risk gullies are Ergou,Niujuangou Mozigou,next came Gaodianzigou,Manianpingou Yiwanshuigou gullies;c） The multi-factor assessment method based on gray-correlation can fairly well select assessment factors,determine corresponding weights and calculate the value of hazard degree of each debris flow gully.The results can provide basis reference for preventing mitigating debris flows,reconstructing planning stricken areas and selecting designing traffic lines.

关 键 词：泥石流 危险性评价 灰色关联 都江堰—汶川公路 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]