风电功率预测准确性分析  

Analysis of Accuracy of Wind Power Forecasting

作　　者：苏赞[1] 王维庆[1] 王健波 常喜强[3] 张新燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学电气工程学院,乌鲁木齐830047 [2]新疆伊犁电力公司,新疆伊犁835000 [3]新疆电力公司,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《电气技术》2012年第3期1-5,共5页Electrical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(50867004);国家自然基金国际合作项目(51010105064)

摘　　要：风电并网容量迅猛增加,风电与系统之间的联系越来越密切,必须考虑风能的波动性和间歇性引起风电出力的变化给电力系统电能质量、安全稳定运行和经济效益带来的不利影响。因此,进行风电功率预测具有重要的现实意义。首先对风速和风电出力预测的分类和方法进行了探讨,然后简要综述了国内外风功率预测技术的研究现状,最后针对我国现阶段风电功率预测产生误差的原因进行了阐述并提出了建议。Wind power industry is developing rapidly, and has become an important field of energy development. Because the capacity of wind power connecting to grid increases rapidly, the relationship of wind power and power system is more and more close, so it must be considered the changes of wind power output what the fluctuant and intermittent of wind cause bring the bad influence to power quality of power system, the safe and stable operation and economic benefit. Therefore, wind power prediction would have important practical significance. Firstly, classification and methods of the wind power output forecast and wind speed are discussed, and then this paper review the research situation of the wind power forecasting technology at home and abroad, finally according to our country present stage, what cause the errors of wind power forecasting were introduced, and puts forward some advice to solve them.

关 键 词：风电功率预测 预测方法 研究现状 存在的问题 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]