中国农业资源现状与近期潜力评估  

PRESENT SITUATION OF CHINA'S AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES AND THEIR NEAR FUTURE POTENTIAL APPRASAL

作　　者：陈百明[1] 陈安宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《资源科学》2000年第2期1-7,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家"九五"科技攻关项目!"农业资源高效利用与管理技术"96 -0 13 -0 1-0 2 (A)专题阶段性成果

摘　　要：分析评述了我国农业资源开发利用概况 ,包括耕地资源、后备耕地资源、农业水资源、粮食生产能力、要素投入贡献率等方面。在此基础上 ,预测了这些方面在近期 ( 2 0 1 0年以前 )可能发生的变化 ,认为耕地数量难以平衡 ,将会减少 ,质量可望有所提高 ,农业可供水量会有增加 ,科技投入贡献率将发挥更大作用。以此为依据 ,认为届时粮食生产能力约为 5 974× 1 0 8kg。最后就实现预期生产能力提出 4方面的对策 ,包括完善公共物品投入的约束机制 ;优化配置农业资源 ,调整全国粮食生产格局 ;确定粮食生产科技主攻领域 ;积极应对加入WTO所带来的影响。This paper examines the general situation in exploitation and utilization of agricultural resources in China,including farmland resources,reserve farmland resources,agricultural water resources,grain productivity and element input contributing rates.Based on the forecast of the possible changes of the above\|mentioned aspects in near future (before the year 2010),it is considered that farmland area will be decreased and quality will be improved,agricultural water supply amount will be increased and contributing rates of scientific and technical input will play much more important roles.In light with the opinion,it is estimated that the grain productivity will reach 5 974 ×10 8kg in the year 2010.Finally,the paper puts forward countermeasures for achieving prosperous productivity,including consummation of restricted mechanism of common goods input;optimization of deployment of agricultural resources and pattern adjustment of grain production;identification focus of attention in scientific and technical aspects related to grain production;and actively response to the impact after joining WTO.

关 键 词：农业资源 粮食生产 潜力评估 中国 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]