基于ECM模型的新疆电力需求预测  

Prediction of Electric Power Demand with Economic Growth in Xinjiang Based on ECM

作　　者：李新英[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《新疆财经》2012年第1期61-66,共6页Finance & Economics of Xinjiang

基　　金：2008年度国家社科基金项目(08XJY010)"电力工业节能减排的机制与政策体系研究--以新疆为例"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于新疆1990年-2008年发电装机规模、全社会用电量、GDP、三次产业增加值及其用电量的原始数据,采用Granger因果关系与ECM模型分析了新疆GDP增长与电力需求以及三次产业增长与其电力需求之间的关系及影响程度,并在此基础上对新疆未来一段时期的电力需求进行了预测。Based on the raw statistics of installed power-generating scale,the power consumption of the whole society,GDP,the added value of the three industries and the power consumption of each industry from 1990 to 2008 in Xinjiang,this paper analyses the relationships between the growth of GDP in Xinjiang and the demand for electric power,and the growth of the three industries and the demand for electric power for each industry,as well as the degree of their mutual influence by Granger causality and ECM model.Based on the findings,a prediction of the demand for electric power in Xinjiang in the future is made.

关 键 词：电力需求 经济增长 误差修正模型 新疆 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F426.61