2010年上海世博会参观人流模拟的后评估  

An Assessment of Simulation Study on Visitor Flows for the Shanghai World Expo 2010

作　　者：马力[1] 王德[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 [2]高密度人居环境生态与节能教育部重点实验室

出　　处：《城市规划学刊》2012年第2期9-16,共8页Urban Planning Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“我国商业步行街消费者行为研究”的部分成果(批准号:40871080)

摘　　要：2010年上海世博会场馆规划阶段,本研究小组采用虚拟参观的方法收集参观者的参观行为数据,建立了参观者的参观行为模型,开展了园区内的参观人流模拟,为世博会场馆设施规划提供了参考。世博会的举办为人流模拟提供了检验的机会。在真实参观调查的基础上,通过与模拟结果的对比,评估模拟结果的准确性,并分析误差产生的原因,提出改善的途径。研究成果表明模拟的结果与真实情况有较大的相似性,反映了该方法在规划设计分析中应用的可行性。在进一步的模拟误差分析中,量化分析了误差产生的主要方面(包括调查、模拟环境设置、模拟流程),衡量各要素对模拟误差的影响程度,得出在模拟过程环境设置的要素中,特色展区设定对模拟误差的影响最大。At the planning phase of the Shanghai Expo, Monte Carlo simulation based on individual behavior model was adopted to estimate visitor flows The model was based on a virtual survey. Real data collected during the Expo pro- vides a comparison to the modeling results. After a brief introduction of previous researches on simulation, the paper analyzes the differences between prediction of visitor volume and the actual situation. The assessment shows that the model em- ployed in the planning analysis is reliable. In addition, the paper also analyses the main reasons for simulation deviations from actual results, including survey methods, the reliability of the Expo information and the approach of simulation. By evaluating the importance of these reasons, the paper reveals that the settings of special exhibition zones produce the biggest influence on the prediction errors.

关 键 词：世博会 人流 行为模型 后评估 

分 类 号：TU984.18[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]