山西省产妇高龄化现状及趋势分析  

Women with advanced maternal age in Shanxi Province： current status and future trends

作　　者：张雪娟[1] 傅葵[1] 赵志华[1] 黄晶[1] 宋志娇[1] 罗艳虹[2] 

机构地区：[1]山西省妇幼保健院保健部,太原030013 [2]山西医科大学统计教研室,太原030013

出　　处：《中国生育健康杂志》2012年第2期86-88,共3页Chinese Journal of Reproductive Health

摘　　要：目的了解山西省产妇高龄化现状及趋势。方法利用山西省以医院为基础的出生缺陷监测网所收集的资料，对2001-2010年42所监测医院的产妇及高龄（I〉35岁）产妇数进行分析。对城镇高龄产妇比率分别进行平滑指数模型（exponenti Mmodel）拟合分析，对乡村高龄产妇比率进行3次方模型（cubicmodel）拟合分析，了解高龄产妇比率的变化趋势，并预测2015年高龄产妇比率。结果42所医院高龄产妇为8．4％。，全省高龄产妇2001年比率为5．7％，2010年为9．6％，模型拟合分析得平滑指数模型为ln（Y）=In（5．529）＋（o．069×t），预测2015年山西省高龄产妇达到14．8％。城市高龄产妇比率2001年为5．0％（826／16435），2010年为10．3％（2591／25132），模型拟合分析得平滑指数模型为ln（Y）=In（4．760）＋（0．085×t），预测2015年山西省城市高龄产妇达17．0％。农村2001年高龄产妇比率为7．1％（573／8122），2010年为9．0％（3354／37401），模型拟合分析得3次方模型为Y=8．544-2．002t＋0．523t^2-0．032t^3，变化趋势不明显。结论山西省总体高龄产妇比率呈逐年增长趋势，城市尤其明显。Objective To characterize the current status and predict future trends of women with advanced mater- nal age （/〉35 year） in Shanxi province. Methods Data were collected from 42 hospitals from Shanxi hospital-based birth defects surveillance system. Number of women who delivered at 35 years of age or above from 2001 to 2010 were counted. Exponential model analysis on the rates of women with advanced maternal age in total and urban area and cubic model on the rates in rural area were fit and predictive values in 2015 were obtained. Results A total of 391 479 women were included, including 32 782 women （8.4 % ） with advanced maternal age. The proportions of women with advanced maternal age were 5.7 % （ 1 399/24 557） and 9.6 % （5 945/62 173） in 2001 and 2010, respectively. Based upon the best fitted exponential model In （y） = ln（ 5. 529 ） ＋ （0. 069 t）, the predicted pro, portion of women with advanced materual age in 2015 will be 14. 8 %. In urban area, the proportion of women with advanced maternal age were 5.0 % （ 826/ 16 435） and 10. 3 % （2 591/25 132） in 2001 and 2010, respectively. Based upon the best fitted exponential model [ln （y） = In （ 4. 760 ） ＋ （ 0. 085 t） ] , the predicted proportion of women with advanced materual age in 2015 will be 17. 0 %. In rural area, the proportion of women with advanced maternal age were 7.1% （ 573/8 122） and 9. 0 % （ 3 354/37 401 ） in 2001 and 2010, respectively. A cubic model was established （ y = 8.544 - 2.002 t ＋ 0. 523 t2 - 0. 032 t3 ）, wbich showed no remarkable trend. Conclusion The proportion of women delivering at age of 35 years or older increased in last ten years in Shanxi Province, especially in urban area.

关 键 词：分娩年龄 趋势分析 母婴 保健 

分 类 号：R719.8[医药卫生—妇产科学]