风险最糟糕情景认知模式及行政法制之改革  

The Cognitive Models of Worst-case scenarios of Risk and the Reform of Administrative Law

作　　者：杨小敏[1] 戚建刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学法学院,北京100872 [2]中南财经政法大学法学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《法律科学（西北政法大学学报）》2012年第2期83-94,共12页Science of Law：Journal of Northwest University of Political Science and Law

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目(90924028)

摘　　要：以行为决策学关于风险认知的两种模式及其相互关系的理论,阐述了政府官员(公众)对风险最糟糕情景的判断过程,从个体情感角度揭示其过度反应或反应不足的原因;运用社会心理学中的易(非易)得性启示及概率忽视的原理,进一步分析了政府官员(公众)过度反应或反应不足的机理。从行政法角度而言,政府对风险的最糟糕情景反应不足或过度反应都是不具有合法性的行政行为。为确保政府科学管理风险最糟糕情景,行政法需要进行制度变革。这些改革措施包括:组建风险最糟糕情景模拟实验室,定期公布模拟结果;建立并更新风险最糟糕情景信息超级数据库,以及确定相应的预警标准;成立超级风险规制机构以及设计更为精致和灵敏的分析性工具。This article uses the theories of two models of risk perception and theirs mutual relations in behavioral deci- sion making to explain the judge process of the worst - ease scenarios of the risk of the public officials and the public, thus revealing the reason of theirs excessive over - reaction and utter under - reaction from the angel of personal emotion. This article uses the theories of probability neglect and availability heuristic or unavailability heuristic of social psychology further to analysis the mechanisms of theirs excessive over - reaction and utter under - reaction. This article holds that over - reac-tion and under - reaction to the worst - case scenarios of the risk of government are both illegitimate actions . To make sure that government can manage the worst - case scenarios of the risk scientifically, we should reform the institutions of the ad- ministrative law. The reform measures are following： First, to establish stimulation laboratory of the worst - case scenarios of the risk and to publish the stimulation results periodically. The second is to establish and renew the super - database ofthe worst - case scenarios of the risk and to determine the appropriate warning criteria. The third is to establish the super - regulatory agencies of risk. the super - regulatory agencies of risk is the more effective organization vector for the public of- ficials to use the model of analysis/ration model to percept the worst - case scenarios of the risk so as to manage the worst case scenarios of the risk systematically and rationally. The fourth is to devise the more deliberate and sensitive analytical instrument.

关 键 词：风险 最糟糕情景 认知模式 行政法制 

分 类 号：DF31[政治法律—宪法学与行政法学]