广义极值分布在地震危险性分析中的应用  

Application of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution in Seismic Hazard Analysis

作　　者：钱小仕[1] 王福昌[1] 曹桂荣[1] 任晴晴[1] 

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院,河北三河065201

出　　处：《地震研究》2012年第1期73-78,157,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(ZY20120205);河北省自然科学基金(A2011408006)联合资助

摘　　要：利用广义极值分布研究地震最大发震震级的规律,给出了广义极值分布下地震危险性分析的相关公式与方法,并对台湾地区历史地震资料进行极值统计分析,发现最大震级超过7级的地震理论发震次数与实际发震次数完全一致,在此基础上预测了未来几年发震的危险性。We study the maximum magnitude laws of earthquake by use of the generalized extreme value distribution,and give related methods and formula of seismic risk analysis with the distribution of generalized extreme value.From the statistical analysis of extreme values on historical earthquake data in Taiwan,we find out that the number of earthquake occurrence calculated by generalized extreme value distribution is completely consistent with that of actual earthquake occurrence when the maximum magnitude is greater than M7.On the basis of it,we predict the seismic risk in Taiwan in the coming years.

关 键 词：极值理论 广义极值分布 地震危险性 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]