历史订单信息对牛鞭效应的影响分析  

Analysis of the Affect of the History Order Information on the Bullwhip Effect

作　　者：李文立[1] 王乐超[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2012年第1期195-200,共6页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70572099);辽宁省自然科学基金资助项目(1050349)

摘　　要：客户需求信息的失真是导致牛鞭效应存在的原因,基于零售商的历史订单数据对其需求进行预测可以部分消除牛鞭效应。论文基于零售商-分销商二级供应链视角,分析了在零售商的需求为线性自回归模式的二级供应链中,分销商利用零售商历史订单数据和现有订单数据进行需求预测时自身库存成本的变更以及整个供应链的牛鞭效应的缓解程度。结果表明:分销商利用历史订单数据进行库存的决策可以显著地降低自己的平均库存和需求的波动,这种降低程度在零售商的订货提前期较大的情况下比较明显,但是零售商的需求预测相关系数对它影响不大。The distortion of the customer demand information leads to the existence of the bullwhip effect,and to forecast the demand of the customers based on their history order information can partially eliminate the bullwhip effect.This paper is based on the two-stage supply with one retailer and one distributor.We study the changes of the supplier ＇s inventory cost and the degree of the alleviation of the bullwhip effect when the demand of the retailer is a linear regression process and the supplier uses the history order data to forecast the true demand of the retailer.The result shows that when the distributor makes his inventory decision using the history order data of the retailer,it can significantly reduce the average inventory and demand fluctuations,and the degree of the reduction is more obvious when the order lead time of the retailer is long,but it is not sensitive to the coefficient of the demand forecast in the liner regression.

关 键 词：供应链 牛鞭效应 需求信息失真 线性自回归模型 历史订单数据 

分 类 号：F224.31[经济管理—国民经济]