基于MCS的房地产开发企业土地储备系统决策研究  

A Decision-making Research for Real Estate Development Enterprise's Land Reserve System Based on MCS

作　　者：鲍海君[1] 王犁苑[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经学院工商管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2012年第1期46-50,共5页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70803042);浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划(新苗人才计划)项目

摘　　要：从库存系统角度出发,分析房地产开发企业在可持续经营目标下,影响土地储备规模的因素,并建立土地储备规模的安全区间决策模型。在研究方法上,采用了蒙特卡罗模拟决策方法,并通过对万科的实证研究验证了模型的可行性,模拟计算得出了适合房地产开发企业的土地储备规模以及当月需进入开发的土地储备量。本研究建立的模型可为房地产开发企业在变化的市场周期中进行动态的土地储备决策提供科学辅助手段,以减少企业的土地投机行为,促进土地市场健康有序发展。In the view of inventory system, this paper analyzes factors affecting land banking scale of real estate enterprise with target of sustainable management, and establishes safe areal decision model of land reserve scale. By adopting Monte Carlo Simulation Method to make decision, and via the research of Wan Ke to prove the feasibility of the model, proper land reserve scale and land storage quantity per month are obtained by simulate calculation. This model established in the research which can be a scien- tific assistant land reserve decision - making method during the dynamic market cycle, thus decreasing the speculation of real estate enterprises, and facilitating the healthy orderly development for land market.

关 键 词：土地储备 房地产开发企业 规模决策 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]