江苏省冬小麦湿渍害的风险区划  

Risk division on winter wheat suffering from spring wet damages in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：吴洪颜[1,2] 高苹[1,2] 徐为根[1] 包云轩[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象局,南京210008 [2]南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044 [3]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044

出　　处：《生态学报》2012年第6期1871-1879,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：江苏省科技支撑计划(BE2009680);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106021)

摘　　要：选取能较好反映冬小麦春季湿渍害特征的3个气象因子:旬降雨量、旬日照时数和旬雨日,计算了江苏省1960—2008期间历年3—5月这3个因子的逐旬统计值,分析了这些因子与冬小麦气候产量的关系,研究结果表明:(1)春季旬降雨量、旬雨日和旬日照时数对江苏省冬小麦气候产量有显著影响;(2)通径分析显示,旬降雨量和旬日照对气候产量有直接影响,而旬雨日对气候产量有间接影响;(3)构建了一个湿渍害判别指数Q用来判别湿渍害发生年份,并结合江苏省各地湿渍害年发生频率和冬小麦气候减产率,建立了冬小麦湿渍害风险指数模型;(4)利用所建风险指数模型对江苏省冬小麦的湿渍害风险进行了区划和评估,并提出了各风险区的防御对策。Wet damage in spring has been one of the important agrometeorrological disasters in the winter wheat production of Jiangsu Province. In order to reveal the occurrence pattern of the disaster, forage its appropriate monitoring and forewarning indicators, evaluate its hazard risk scientifically and provide the decisionmaking basis for the prevention from its disaster and the mitigation of its loss, in this paper, three meteorological factors such as tenday precipitation, tenday sunshine time, and tenday rainfall days were selected to characterize the wet damage in spring and their data in all springs during 1960 to 2008 were calculated and used to analyze the relationship between the wet damage and the climate yield of winter wheat in the different regions of Jiangsu Province combined with the path analysis, a statistical method. A wet damage index was quoted to differentiate the effect of wet damage on the yield of winter wheat in the different regions of the province. An hazard risk index of wet damage and its division indicators with three risk grades were suggested to evaluate the hazard risks of the wet damage and decide their regional divisions in the province. Consequently, some results were obtained from this paper. At first, the tenday precipitation and tenday rainfall days in spring were remarkable positive related to the climatic yields of winter wheat in the dfferent regions of the province but the tenday sunshine time was eminent negative related to the climatic yields. The tenday precipitation and tenday sunshine time were two direct factors influencing on the climatic yield of winter wheat but the tenday rainfall days had indirect effect. Secondly, the quotedindex model of wet damage and its suggested hazard risk index model reflected perfectly the occurrence frequencies of wet damage and the loss situations of winter wheat yield in the different regions of the province. Under the assistance of Arc GIS 9.3, a software of geographical information system, the spatial analysis on the hazard risk index o

关 键 词：冬小麦 湿渍害 通径分析 风险指数 区划 

分 类 号：S422[农业科学—植物保护] S512.11