典型居住地块电力需求特性分析与预测  

Analysis and forecasting of power demand characteristics for typical residential blocks

作　　者：薛季良[1] 顾洁[1] 储琳琳 张宇俊 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200240 [2]上海市市南供电公司,上海201100

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2012年第2期19-22,共4页Power Demand Side Management

摘　　要：功能地块的负荷发展对于地区电网的电力负荷预测起到了至关重要的作用。与其他功能地块不同的是,居民地块的负荷发展往往与地块发展定位及成熟度密切相关。同时,居住地块的负荷在夏、冬季负荷波动受气候影响极大。以居住地块的入住率作为切入点,以3个居住地块的月最大负荷作为研究对象,对月最大负荷序列筛选后回归建模,将月最大负荷解耦,得出基本分量和气温负荷,分析该类型地块电力需求的历史变化,并结合入住率分析基本负荷的饱和时间及户均基本负荷推荐指标。Load development of a function block in regional grid is a pivotal part of the power load forecasting. Different from other functional blocks, the power load in residential block has been proved to be close related to block orientation and land matu rity. Meanwhile, power load in residential block fluctuates violent ly in summer and winter because of climate factor. In this paper, the occupancy rate is discussed as an entry point to research maxi mum load in three residential blocks. Regression is done after sort ing the load series to decouple the maximum load and to excavate the variation law of load. Qualitative and quantitative analysis is adopted into historical load change. Through the results of occupan cy rate, some recommended indicators such as occupancy and load saturation point and base load per household are inferred, which means a good attempt in regional power grid.

关 键 词：居住地块 入住率 月最大负荷 饱和时间 户均基本负荷 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]