气候预测中的集合方法初探  

A Note on Ensemble Methods for Climate Prediction

作　　者：袁重光[1] 赵彦[1] 李旭[1] 曾庆存[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学》2000年第2期207-214,共8页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家科委攀登项目!95-预 -2 1"气候动力学和气候预测理论的研究";国家自然科学基金资助项目!4 950 50 70

摘　　要：介绍了气候预测中的集合方法。该文作者曾在 1996年论证了在西太平洋暖池区海温异常与东亚夏季风的共同作用下存在一个可预测的气候异常区 ,部分地改变了气候不可预测的论断。如何从与大量不可预测结果混杂在一起的结果中提炼出可预测部分是集合方法的重要目的之一。文中也讨论了由于大气运动固有的动力学特性 ,其集合预测与经典的数学考虑有所区别 ,天气与气候预测有不同的特点 ,其集合方法、目的也应有所不同 ,由此对集合方法提出了一些新的建议。文中同时介绍了首次在气候预测中发现的多平衡态现象 ,建议了如何判定多平衡的出现 ,以及如何利用多平衡态来改善对不同区域的预测。Ensemble methods for climate prediction are approached in this paper It has been argued that there exists a predictable climate anomaly region which results from the efforts of SST anomalies in the warmpool of the western Pacific and the Asian monsoon, so the predictability in this effected region increases How to extract the predictable part which mixes with a large mount of unpredictable results is one of the most important objectives for ensemble prediction It is pointed out that due to the inherent dynamic characteristics of the atmospheric motion, the feature of climate prediction is different from that of weather prediction, therefore the ensemble method and objectives should not be the same Some new ensemble proposals for climate prediction are put forward Moreover, the phenomenon of multi-equilibrium-state found in climate prediction is presented for the first time How to determine the multi-equilibrium-state and how to use the phenomenon to improve the prediction skill in different areas are discussed

关 键 词：短期气候 降水距平 集合预测 气候预测 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]