基于假设检验原理的边坡临滑时刻的动态识别方法  

DYNAMIC IDENTIFICATION METHOD OF SLOPE IMPENDING LANDSLIDE MOMENT BASED ON HYPOTHETIC TESTING THEORY

作　　者：王东[1] 曹兰柱[1] 朴春德[2] 薛应东 白润才[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学矿业学院,辽宁阜新123000 [2]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏徐州221008 [3]平庄能源集团西露天矿,内蒙古赤峰024076

出　　处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2012年第3期577-585,共9页Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51104084;51004103);辽宁省重点实验室项目(LS2010075)

摘　　要：位移监测技术在边坡工程中的应用越来越广泛,如何根据动态监测信息及时掌握边坡稳定性状态,判定边坡的临滑时刻是有效实施滑坡预警、避免滑坡灾害发生的关键问题之一。在分析各种典型滑坡判据的基础上,确定将位移加速度大于0作为边坡的临滑判据;基于假设检验原理,将由观测得到的位移数据生成的位移速度变量看作是一随机变量,认为边坡在等速变形阶段时的位移速度变量服从正态分布,一旦进入加速变形阶段时则不服从正态分布,据此提出基于Lilliefors检验的边坡临滑时刻的动态识别方法。结合平庄西露天矿顶帮9.15滑坡过程中的监测数据,对边坡在不同变形阶段的位移速度变量进行形态检验,得出该边坡在等速变形阶段时,位移速度变量服从正态分布,进入加速阶段后服从指数分布,并且在剧滑前的一段时间内位移加速度变量服从正态分布,验证上述方法的合理性。研究结果表明,该方法能够及时、准确识别边坡的临滑时刻,可有效提高滑坡预警的可靠性。The displacement monitoring technology is used more widely in the slope engineering.How to master the slope stability opportunely based on the dynamic monitoring information and determine the impending landslide moment is a key problem for effectively carrying out the landslide warning and avoiding the landslide disaster.On the basis of analyzing various landslide criteria,the displacement acceleration a≥0 is regarded as the impending landslide criterion.The displacement velocity variable generated by the monitored displacement records is regarded as a random variable.It is taken for granted that the displacement velocity variable follows normal distribution in the slope constant velocity deformation stage and is not normal distribution in the slope accelerating deformation stage;then a dynamic identification method of slope impending landslide moment based on Lilliefors testing is proposed.According to the monitoring data in the process of 9·15 landslide of the top slope of Pingzhuang Western Surface Mine,the distribution characteristics of the displacement velocity variables in different stages are tested;the results show that the displacement velocity variables are normal distribution in the constant deformation stage and exponential distribution in the accelerating deformation stage;at the same time,the displacement acceleration variables are normal distribution for some time before the slope sliding sharply,which shows that the rationality of the presented method.The results show that the presented method can identify the impending landslide moment opportunely and accurately,so as to improve the reliability of the landslide early warning effectively.

关 键 词：边坡工程:滑坡判据 临滑时刻 位移速度变量 假设检验 正态分布 指数分布 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]