灰色随机多准则的水库洪水调度群决策方法及应用  

Decision making method of grey random reservoir flood dispatching multiple criterion group and its application

作　　者：申海[1,2] 解建仓[1] 李建勋[1] 李维乾[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]西安外国语大学基础教学部,陕西西安710128

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第3期213-219,228,共8页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家"863"高技术研究与发展计划项目(2006AA01A126);国家自然科学基金项目(51109177)

摘　　要：【目的】建立基于灰色随机多准则的群决策方法,为处理水库洪水调度决策中的不确定信息提供参考。【方法】利用区间数可能度将水库当前所处状态的区间概率转化为点概率,结合区间偏好的群集结法,将概率为区间数、准则值为区间灰数的灰色随机多准则水库洪水调度问题转化为无风险决策问题,计算各备选方案在正负理想方案上的灰色隶属度,以及方案准则值的加权相对灰度,根据区间灰数公式对决策方案进行排序,建立基于灰色随机多准则的水库洪水调度群决策方法。【结果】实例计算表明,该方法有效地解决了水库洪水调度中概率为区间数、准则值为区间灰数的灰色随机多准则问题。【结论】所构建的基于灰色随机多准则的群决策方法,具有一定的有效性和合理性,为水库洪水合理、科学的调度提供了一条有效途径。[Objective] The study was to establish a group decision method based on the grey random many criteria, so as to provide important decision basis for dealing with uncertain information in reservoir flood dispatching decision-making. [Method] The reservoir interval probability in the current state turn in- to point probability through interval number possibility degree. Combining with the assembly group meth- ods of interval preference, the probability of the reservoir flood dispatching based on grey random many standards was interval number. The criterion value of the reservoir flood dispatching based on grey random many standards was interval grey number. These questions had been turned into no risk decision problem. We calculated the grey membership of the different schemes on idea scheme, and weighted grey relatively of scheme criterion value. The different schemes would go in order according to interval grey number formula. Determining method of effective reservoir flood dispatching decision making was given based on the grey random. [Result] The results show that the multi-criteria problem of reservoir flood dispatching decision making, with interval probability and criterion, is solved effectively. [Conclusion] The group decision meth- od based on the grey random many criteria method has definite ability, rationality and practicability, which could provide an effec＇dve way for reasonable scheduling of reservoir flood.

关 键 词：灰色理论 多准则决策 水库洪水调度 区间概率 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] TV697.11[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]