基于元胞自动机的人因追尾事故仿真研究  

Simulation research on the rear-end accident due to human factor based on cellular automata

作　　者：靳慧斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2012年第2期38-43,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划("973"计划)项目(编号:2010CB734105)

摘　　要：人为因素已经成为导致交通事故发生的关键因素之一,而车辆追尾碰撞是公路上最常见、危害最大的一类事故。本文将驾驶员的心理细分为放松、谨慎和紧张三种状态,设计了状态切换规则以及不同状态下驾驶员的行为规则,建立了一种公路人因追尾事故的元胞自动机仿真模型。随后通过仿真实验研究了交通流参数以及驾驶员驾驶特性对追尾事故发生率的影响,仿真结果表明随着车辆最大允许速度和车辆密度的增加,追尾事故发生率显著上升;跟驰状态下驾驶员的反应延迟与差错率对事故率影响最大,而紧急情况下驾驶员的人为因素对事故率没有显著影响。研究结果对交通中人因事故发生机理研究及人因事故的预防有一定参考价值。Human factor has become one of the key factors leading to traffic accidents,among which the tail-end crash is one of the most common and serious types of accident.In this paper,the psychological state of the drivers were dividied into three types： relax,careful and nervous.Then the states-shift rules and driving rules under different state were designed,based on which a cellular automata traffic flow simulation model was developed.This model was used to investigate the relationship between traffic flow parameters,as well as human factors and highway rear-end accident ratio.Simulation results showed that with the increments of maximum speed and vehicle density,accident ratio increased significantly.Moreover,the reaction delay and error rate of the drivers in the car-following procedure posed great effect upon accident ratio,while drivers＇ factors in the emergent situation exerted little influence.These results are useful for the understanding and prevention of human-caused accidents.

关 键 词：元胞自动机模型 反应延迟 操作失误 追尾事故 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]