江西强对流天气概念模型及云图特征分析  

Conceptual models of severe convection weather and clouds feature in Jiangxi

作　　者：余辉 马中元[2] 谢勇[3] 卢秋芳 陈鲍发 

机构地区：[1]江西省赣州市气象局,赣州341000 [2]江西省气象科学研究所,南昌330046 [3]江西省气象局人工影响天气办公室,南昌330046 [4]江西省上饶市气象局,上饶334000 [5]江西省景德镇市气象局,景德镇333000

出　　处：《气象水文海洋仪器》2012年第1期31-36,80,共6页Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments

基　　金：科技部2012年公益性行业(气象)科研专项"强对流天气短期概率预报技术研究"(项目编号:GYHY201206004);中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室2010年开放课题(项目编号:2010LASW-A03)资助

摘　　要：针对1989～2010年期间江西境内发生的144次强对流天气过程,采用数理统计方法进行时空统计分析,并利用常规天气图、云图等资料,对1998～2010年17次典型强对流天气过程,进行天气形势分型及特征分析。结果表明:①江西强对流天气出现的频次呈现增大的趋势,4月份最容易出现强对流天气,12月和1月无强对流天气,每日08:00和15:00最有利于强对流天气系统的生成,11:00～14:00次之;而18:00～19:00、21:00～23:00最不利于生成强对流天气系统。②江西中部地区是强对流天气的易发地区,南部较少。③雷雨大风、强降水出现频率很高,且雷雨大风和强降水最容易混合在一起发生。④200hPa高空急流和南亚高压、500hPa副热带高压和低槽、700hPa和850hPa的低涡切变,以及西南急流、地面辐合线、气旋、静止锋等是造成江西强对流天气的主要天气系统。⑤总结出斜压带状云系(一般斜压云系和带状波动云系)和MCC两类强对流天气的云系特征。By means of conventional weather charts and cloud pictures, based on mathematical statistics, temporal and spatial analysis, 144 processes of severe convection in Jiangxi from 1989 to 2010 and 17 processes of typical severe convection from1998 to 2010 are analyzed. The results show that ： 1） Severe convection in Jiangxi has been increasing year after year. It is common to appear severe convection in April and seldom in December and January. The time of＇ everyday 08：00 and 15.00 has advantage to generate severe convection, followed by 11. 00 -14 ： 00. It＇s impossible to form severe convection at 18.00-19.00 and 21.00-23：00.2） Severe convection mainly occurs in central Jiangxi, and less in southern part than other regions. 3） Strong wind and precipitation mainly occurs when the severe convection happening. 4） The severe convection in Jiangxi is caused by various weather systems such as southern Asia high and upperlevel jet stream （200 hPa）, subtropical high and conditioningtank （500 hPa）, shear and low vortex （700 hPa and 850 hPa）,southwest jet stream, surtace quasi- stationary front, cyclone and stationary front etc. 5） The two conceptual models for severe convection are summarize,that are MCC and barocline banded cloud （hackneyed barocline banded cloud and band wave cloud）.

关 键 词：强对流 概念模型 云图特征 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]