哈尔滨市道路交通噪声分析与预测  

Analysis and prediction of road traffic noise of Harbin

作　　者：樊庆锌[1] 徐涵[1] 石磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学市政环境工程学院环境科学与工程系,哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第6期872-875,880,共5页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition

摘　　要：利用哈尔滨市道路交通噪声监测数据,以及民用汽车保有量等因素,分析道路交通噪声的变化情况,并利用灰色系统理论建立模型预测未来几年哈尔滨市道路交通噪声变化趋势.选取等效声级Leq和噪声标准指数NPI作为分析指标,根据2001～2009年哈尔滨市道路交通噪声等效声级Leq值,计算出NPI值,基于民用汽车保有量、道路总数量、道路总长、道路总面积等因素分析噪声变化现状,并利用灰色系统理论建立等效声级Leq值的GM(1,1)模型,预测2011～2015年哈尔滨市道路交通噪声变化趋势.结果表明,哈尔滨市道路交通噪声逐年平稳下降,并将于2011～2015年继续下降,2015年将达到67.5 dB,声环境质量达标,并处于好的水平.Based on the road traffic noise monitoring data of Harbin,and the factors such as civilian vehicle holdings,this paper analyzed the variation of road traffic noise,and forecast the trends of the noise by the grey model.This paper chose Leq and NPI as analysis indicators,calculated NPI by Leq of Harbin from 2001 to 2009,and analyzed the variation of road traffic noise by civilian vehicle holdings,the total number,length and area of the roads and other factors.Based on the gray forecast theory,a model-GM（1,1） was pointed out to forecast the trend of road traffic noise from 2011 to 2015.The results showed that the road traffic noise steadily decline in these years,and would continue to decline in the next few years.In 2015,Leq will achieve 67.5dB.It means that the sound environmental quality will reach the standard,and stand at the well level.

关 键 词：哈尔滨市 道路交通噪声 等效声级 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：X827[环境科学与工程—环境工程]