新疆耕地动态变化与可持续发展  

Dynamic change of cultivated land in Xinjiang and its sustainable development

作　　者：龙桃[1,2,3] 熊黑钢[4,3] 左永君[2] 瓦哈甫.哈力克 张芳[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国共产党吐鲁番市委员会办公室,吐鲁番838000 [2]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046 [4]北京联合大学应用文理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2012年第1期19-24,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40771194);北京市属高等学校人才强教计划项目(PHR200906125)资助

摘　　要：根据1949～2007年全疆及各地州耕地总量、水浇地面积等数据,采用系统聚类分析法,结合GIS的空间表达功能探讨了新疆耕地的时空动态变化特征,并运用时间序列趋势模型对其变化态势进行了预测。结果表明:近60a来,耕地总量净增290.45×104hm2,增幅高达240.10%,其中水田、水浇地、旱地面积分别增长了0.83×104hm2、263.79×104hm2和2.53×104hm2;耕地的变化(增长)速率按北疆、南疆、东疆依次递减;政策对耕地的动态变化有显著影响;2010～2030年,耕地总量将以120.82×104hm2/a的速度递增,水浇地面积的快速增长是其猛增的主要原因。新疆耕地未来的增长速度太快,水土资源的压力将空前加大,故需制定相应的政策来降低其增长速率,以控制其总量在水资源承载能力范围内,实现社会经济的可持续发展。Based on the cultivated land data from 1949 to 2007,using clustering analysis,and the space expression function of GIS,we studied the spatial and temporal variations of Xinjiang cultivated land,and applied time series trend model to predict its changing situation.The results showed that the total number of cultivated land completely added by 290.45×104hm2 in the past 58 years.The increasing intensification was high up to 240.10%.Area of paddy field,irrigable land and dry land separately increased by 0.83×104hm2,263.79×104hm2 and 2.53×104hm2.The changing speed of cultivated land descended in space sequence of North,South and East Xinjiang.Policy distinctly influenced the variation of cultivated land.From 2010 to 2030,total area of cultivated land will increase 120.82×104hm2 every year.The fast increase of paddy field is the main reason of its fierce rising.The increasing speed of Xinjiang cultivated land in the future is very high.The pressure of water and soil resources will increase quite a lot too.Consequently,government should make corresponding polices to reduce its adding speed,and control the total cultivated land area in the carrying capacity of water and soil resources,in order to achieve the sustainable development.

关 键 词：耕地 动态变化 可持续发展 新疆 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]