西安市未来人口规模预测及人口发展对策研究  

Prediction of future population scale and population development strategies in Xi'an

作　　者：赵沙[1] 张福平[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2012年第2期7-12,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(GK200902021);陕西师范大学优秀科技预研项目(200902005)资助

摘　　要：人口规模是城市规划和土地利用总体规划中一项重要的控制性指标,准确地预测未来人口的发展趋势,对于制定合理的人口规划和人口布局方案具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。文中选择西安市作为研究对象,根据西安市1985到2009年的人口统计数据及相关人口指标值,选用三种常用的人口规模预测方法-自然增长模型、灰色预测模型以及马尔萨斯人口模型进行建模,并对各模型的适用性及特点进行比较与分析,综合三种模型预测结果,给出了西安市未来人口规模预测范围值。结果表明:伴随着经济快速发展的同时,西安市的人口数也会在未来二十年将保持每年近11万人的增长速度,到2020及2030年时,西安市人口将分别达到890.99万人和1014.19万人左右。针对西安市的人口形势提出对策与建议,为西安市的人口规划及未来的社会经济发展战略提供相关的数据依据。Population is considered as an important controlling target in urban planning and land use planning. It has profound theoretical and practical significance to exactly predict development trend of population and estab- lish rational population layout . In this paper, three common prediction methods - natural growth models, grey models and Malthusian models were selected to compare and analyze the characteristics and requirement of Xi＇an population based on historical demographic data and related population indexes from 1985 to 2009. Then using these model, the demographic trends for 2020 and 2030 were predicted. The results showed that with the rapid increasing of economic, the population in Xi^n will reach to about 8.9 million in 2020 and 10.1 million in 2030, annual increase is nearly 0.11 million. In order to provide related data on population planning and the future e- conomic development strategy for Xi＇an government, several measures for controlling the population were put for- ward.

关 键 词：灰色模型 经济 马尔萨斯人口模型 人口预测 西安市 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]