基于粮食安全的区域耕地转换研究--以辽宁为例  

Cultivated land conversion on the premise of grain safety-Liaoning Province

作　　者：范秋梅[1] 蔡运龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳大学,沈阳110041 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,土地科学中心,地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2012年第4期1-4,共4页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40971051)资助

摘　　要：运用"最小人均耕地面积"的概念和"耕地转换数量"计算模型对辽宁省1997-2007年间耕地资源转换数量进行了定量分析,并应用灰色系统GM(1.1)预测模型对未来15年耕地转换数量变化进行了预测,据此提出了耕地合理利用和有效利用对策。研究结果表明:辽宁工业大发展以来,特别是老工业基地的振兴和城市化进程的加快,耕地资源转换数量只有1997年、2000年、2001年这三年为负值,其余年份都为正值,说明耕地转换它用不会对粮食安全造成较大的影响,预测未来耕地转换数量始终为正值,说明未来辽宁的经济建设与耕地矛盾趋于平缓,科技进步以及生态建设的完善是减轻耕地压力,保障耕地可持续利用的途径。Abstract： The concept and calculation model of minimum cultivated land area per capita were used in this paper to realize quantitative analysis of cultivated land resource conversion in Liaoning Province from 1997 to 2007.Cultivated land permitting conversion quantity model was put forward; GM （ 1.1 ） forecast model was used for fore- casting the change of future 15 -year cultivated land conversion; thus, the measure of reasonably and effectively utilizing cultivated land was put forward according to the above theory. The research result indicated since thelarge - scale industry development in Liaoning, especially the revitalization of old industrial base and the acceler- ation of urbanization course, the quantity of cultivated land resource conversion was also continuously increased without limit; The sustainable trend indicated that cultivated land conversion could not cause heavy influence on cultivated land, and the main reason was the continuously promoted cultivated land productivity, The future science and technology improvement and the perfect ecological construction are the direct to releasing cultivated land pressure and guaranteeing the sustainable development of cultivated land, population and grain.

关 键 词：耕地转换 转换模型 灰色预测 辽宁省 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]