粮食增产背景下松花江区水资源承载力分析  

Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the Songhua River Under the Background of Grain Production Increases

作　　者：张士锋[1] 孟秀敬[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学》2012年第3期342-347,共6页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q06-1-2)资助

摘　　要：松花江区是中国粮食增产计划的重点地区,这势必对该区的水资源开发利用提出挑战。建立研究区水资源承载力的综合评价模型,选取社会经济指标、用水指标、水土资源对人口的承载指标、水资源供需指标和水环境等5类共10项指标组成评价指标体系,采用聚类分析、层次分析和模糊矩阵的方法进行计算。以2007年作为现状年,1999年为参照年份,得到各年份水资源承载力整体均处于安全状态的结论;结合研究区具体情况对水资源承载力的影响因素进行分析,预测粮食增产条件下研究区水资源承载力的变化趋势。The Songhua River area was listed as one of the key areas of＂China’s Plan for Expansion of Grain Production Capacity＂.The grain production will increase 30% in 10 years according to this plan,this means that grain production will reach 6.5x1010kg in 2020.However,this plan will undoubtedly present a challenge to the local water resources development.In order to evaluate the impact of water development in this area,ten indexes,which were selected base on the analysis of relevant indicators including Socio-economic indicator,water use index,bearing capacity index of water and land resources to population,water supply and demand index and water quality indicators,were used to set up the comprehensive evaluation model of Water Resources Bearing Capacity（WRBC） using Cluster Analysis,Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP） and Fuzzy Matrix.Firstly the AHP analyses of the indicators provide the weight of each indicator.Five clusters are thus classified to these 10 indicators as follows： water demand and supply 0.229 2,water and land capacity 0.225 7,water quality 0.199 3,water use 0.185 8,and social economic index 0.159 9.Secondly modeling analysis is undertaken to the water resource capacity status in different years.The year 1999 was set as reference year while 2007 was set as present situation.The result demonstrated that the water resources bearing capacity in every year was in the safe condition.Furthermore the influencing factors of the WRBC were analyzed in combination with the specific situation of the research area.Thirdly,the variation trends of WRBC under the condition of increasing grain production were also predicted.In the condition of water use index is 0.6 or less and the better water quality control,the WRBC in the year of 2020 will be safe in the rainfall frequency of 50% as well as in 75%.Further analysis shows that another important indicator-social economic indicator-will contribute greatly on the future water safe to the grain expansion plan.This research proves that it is reasonable to impl

关 键 词：松花江区 粮食增产 水资源承载力 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]