Effects of coal prices on merchandise prices in China  

作　　者：Ding Zhihua Zhou Meihua Liu Yan 

机构地区：[1]School of Management, China University of Mining ＆ Technolagy, Xuzhou 221116, China [2]Finance Department, China University of Mining ＆ Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China

出　　处：《Mining Science and Technology》2011年第5期651-654,共4页矿业科学技术（英文版）

基　　金：support for this work, provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71003097);Jiangsu Province Social Science Foundation (No. 10EYD025);2008 China University of Mining and Technology Youth Foundation Program (No.2008W04)

摘　　要：Coal is the principal form of energy used in China. Hence, coal price variations are expected to have some influence on merchandise prices. Monthly data from January, 2002, to October, 2010, were used to construct a varying-parameter state space model, and an error correction model, to estimate the influence of coat prices on Chinese merchandise prices. The time lag and the dynamic relationship were determined from the data. A long term equilibrium relationship between coal price and the PPI, and the CPI, can be observed. The long term influence of coal price fluctuations on the PPI is 0.263%. The corresponding value for the CPI is 0.157%. The PPI shows an influence from coal price change in the first period of observation： by eight periods the influence is obvious, after which it diminishes. The effect of coal price change on the CPI is rather weak and has no long term memory. Analysis of variance shows a similar situation. The elas- ticity coefficient of coal prices on the CPI, or the PPI, fluctuates over the 2002-2004 period. From 2002 to 2007 the influence elasticity on the CPI declined and subsequently levelled off after 2009.Coal is the principal form of energy used in China. Hence, coal price variations are expected to have some influence on merchandise prices. Monthly data from January, 2002, to October, 2010, were used to con- struct a varying-parameter state space model, and an error correction model, to estimate the influence of coal prices on Chinese merchandise prices. The time lag and the dynamic relationship were determined from the data. A long term equilibrium relationship between coal price and the PPI, and the CPI, can be observed. The long term influence of coal price fluctuations on the PPI is 0.263%. The corresponding value for the CPI is 0.157%. The PPI shows an influence from coal price change in the first period of observation: by eight periods the influence is obvious, after which it diminishes. The effect of coal price change on the CPI is rather weak and has no long term memory. Analysis of variance shows a similar situation. The elas- ticity coefficient of coal prices on the CPI, or the PPI, fluctuates over the 2002-2004 period. From 2002 to 2007 the influence elasticity on the CPI declined and subsequently levelled off after 2009.

关 键 词：Coal priceState space modelMerchandise pricePrice fluctuation 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]