应用捕获-再捕获方法估计汶上县全死因死亡率和漏报率  

Estimation of the all-cause mortality and under-reporting rate by captrue-recaptrue method in Wenshang County

作　　者：张书岭[1] 谢龙利[1] 王德泉[1] 周脉耕[2] 

机构地区：[1]济宁市疾病预防控制中心,山东济宁272000 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心信息中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2012年第7期1604-1605,1607,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的应用捕获-再捕获方法估计汶上县全死因死亡率,评价死因登记报告系统收集死亡资料的完整性。方法 2009年收集汶上县死因登记报告系统和死因漏报系统的全死因死亡资料。不同来源数据间的匹配使用姓名、年龄、性别、死亡时间、死亡原因和居住地址等变量。应用Chapman and Wittes的无偏估计公式估计目标人群的死亡人数。结果两来源资料中共报告全死因死亡人数为77人,死亡率为7.13‰。死因登记报告系统报告的全死因死亡人数为69人,死亡率为6.39‰。用捕获-再捕获方法估计的全死因死亡人数为79人,死亡率为7.32‰。死因登记报告系统的漏报率为12.6%,两样本合并后,漏报率为2.6%。结论仅使用死因登记报告系统或合并样本资料会低估全死因死亡率,而利用现有的资料,使用捕获-再捕获方法可以校正低估的全死因死亡率。OBJECTIVE To estimate the all-cause mortality in Wenshang country using the capture-recapture method,and to evaluate the completeness of data in all death cause registry.METHODS The data of all-cause death were collected from the death cause registry and under-reporting investigation.Cases in two sources were matched on the name,gender,age,date of death and resident address.The formula of Chapman and Wittes was used to estimate the number of all death cases.RESULTS It was reported that the death number of all-cause was 77 and the mortality was 7.13‰ per 1 000 from the combined two sources.The number and mortality was respectively 69 and 6.39‰ from the registry.The capture-recapture method estimated that the number was 79 and the mortality was 7.32‰ per 1 000.Under-reporting rate of the registry and the aggregate database was respectively 12.6% and 2.6%.CONCLUSION The registry or aggregated databases underestimate the all-cause mortality.On the basis of data which are collected,using the capture-recapture method can adjust the all-cause mortality.

关 键 词：捕获-再捕获 全死因 死亡率 漏报率 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]