2008～2010年上海市奉贤区传染病自动预警信息分析  

Information analysis on the trend of automatic early warning infectious disease in Fengxian District,Shanghai from 2008 to 2010

作　　者：袁婷[1] 高善西[1] 张建明[1] 王健[1] 韩韬[1] 胡晓丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市奉贤区疾病预防控制中心,上海201400

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2012年第7期1783-1784,1787,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的为进一步提高传染病自动预警填报的质量,及时发现暴发疫情,把暴发疫情控制在萌芽状态,为领导决策提供科学的依据。方法采用描述性统计方法,对2008～2010年在传染病自动预警信息系统中收到的所有奉贤区的预警信号进行分析。结果 2008年4月21日～2010年12月31日奉贤区共有预警信息1384条,覆盖了13个病种。预警信号占前5位的分别是流行性腮腺炎、痢疾、麻疹、水痘、猩红热,占总预警信号的82.37%。预警信号出现高峰在4-9月份,占总预警信号的70.30%,疑似事件者有57起,阳性率为4.12%。预警信息热点区域平均覆盖发病乡镇点数为1.98个乡镇,热点区域内平均病例观测数为7.68例。结论预警信息系统能在较短的时间里发现暴发疫情,灵敏度较高但有效性欠佳,还需要进一步完善。Objective To further enhance the quality of reporting of infectious diseases automatic warning,timely detect outbreaks,control the outbreak of epidemic in the bud,to provide scientific bases for decision-making.METHODS Used descriptive statistics,all early warning signals received by the automatic early warning information system of infectious diseases were analyzed in Fengxian District in 2008 and 2010.RESULTS From April 21,2008 to December 31,2010,there were 1 384 items of early warning information,covering the 13 diseases.The top five warning signs were mumps,dysentery,measles,chicken pox,scarlet fever,accounting for 82.37% in the total early-warning signals.A peak of early warning signals appeared from April to September,accounting for 70.30% in the total early-warning signals.57 were suspected events,the positive rate was 4.12%.Average coverage of early warning information of hot spot areas was 1.98 townships,the average number of cases in the region of hot spots was 7.68 cases.CONCLUSION Early warning information systems find the outbreak in a short time,which with higher sensitivity but poor effectiveness.It need further improvement.

关 键 词：预警 传染病 疫情 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]