房地产市场广义虚拟经济预警模型及实证研究  

The Model and Empirical Research on Real Estate Market Early-warning from Generalized Virtual Economy

作　　者：王子龙[1] 许箫迪[2] 孙银银[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]南京师范大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210097

出　　处：《广义虚拟经济研究》2012年第1期80-89,共10页Research on the Generalized Virtual Economy

基　　金：广义虚拟经济研究专项资助项目[项目编号:GX2011-1002(Y)];国家自然科学基金(71003048)资助

摘　　要：广义虚拟经济视角下房地产市场预警的前提是确定影响房地产市场发展的各个重要环节为监测对象,通过对监测警值的分析,确立房地产市场运行过程中已经存在的风险和可能发生的警情变化趋势。房地产预警建立在预测技术之上,其预警方法是房地产预警系统的核心。通过对广义虚拟经济下房地产市场预警的理论与实证分析,本文提出房地产市场预警需要与计算机技术实现更密切的结合,开发城市房地产市场预警系统。先进的软件使房地产预警系统具有良好的人机交互能力,将计算机信息系统建模技术引入到房地产市场预警领域将会成为今后研究的重点方向。The premise of real estate early-warning is to determine the development link for monitoring objects on the basis of generalized virtual economy. By analyzing the monitoring alarm value, the existing risks and possible warning trend will be established in the operation process of real estate market. Forecasting technology is the basis of real estate early-warning. The early-warning method is the heart of the early-warning system of real estate. Through to the theory and empirical analysis on real estate early-warning of generalized virtual economy, the theory of real estate market early-warning and computer technology to realize more closely combines is introduced in this paper. City real estate early-warning system should be developed as soon as possible. Future research should make full use of computer technology to practice and advanced software to enable real estate early-warning system has a good ability of human-computer interaction, computer information systems modeling technology into the real estate market in the field of early warning will become the focus of future research directions.

关 键 词：广义虚拟经济 房地产市场 经济预警 预警方法 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F224