人口规模、经济增长与碳排放:经验证据及国际比较  

Population Size,Economics Growth and Carbon Emission:Based on the Empirical Analysis and International Comparison

作　　者：姚从容[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学人口与发展研究所,中国天津300071

出　　处：《经济地理》2012年第3期138-145,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(NKZXB1144)

摘　　要：根据国际能源署(IEA)公布的1971—2008年碳排放数据,探讨中国与典型发达国家、发展中国家(G8+5)人口规模、经济增长与碳排放变化的差异性。结果表明:随着GDP增长,中国碳排放快速增长,人均碳排放已超过世界平均水平;单位GDP碳排放持续降低,但依然高于世界平均水平。利用秩相关系数检验人均GDP与单位GDP碳排放,发现7个发达国家均呈显著下降趋势,发展中国家南非、中国呈显著下降趋势,巴西、印度、墨西哥呈上升趋势但并不显著;人均GDP与人均碳排放秩相关系数表明,7个发达国家中,美国、法国、德国、英国呈显著下降趋势,加拿大呈不显著上升趋势,日本、意大利呈显著上升趋势;5个发展中国家处于工业化快速发展阶段,能源消费急剧增加,随着人均GDP增长,人均碳排放均呈显著上升趋势。基于此,归纳出世界主要发达国家和发展中国家人口增长、经济增长与碳排放变动的三种模式。According to the data of CO2 Emissions from International Energy Agency from 1971 to 2008,this paper discusses the differences of population size,economics growth and Carbon emissions among G8＋5 countries in the world.The Results show that the Carbon emission per capital of China has exceeded the average level of the world.The Carbon emission per GDP of China keeps on reducing at present,but it still surpasses the average level of the world.Analyzing the rank coherent coefficient of Carbon emission per capital and Carbon emission per GDP,this paper indicates most of developed countries present declining tendency.In the developing countries,China and South Africa present declining tendency,at the same time,other developing countries presents rising tendency,such as Brazil India and Mexico.Analyzing the rank coherent coefficient of GDP per capital and Carbon emission per capital,this paper indicates most of developing countries present rising tendency of Carbon emission per capital.In the developed countries,America,France,German and UK present declining tendency obviously,at the same time,Canada does not present rising tendency obviously,Japan and Italy present rising tendency obviously.Finally,there are three types of model about population growth,economics growth and Carbon emission to be generalized of the most of developed and developing countries in the world.

关 键 词：人口规模 经济增长 人均碳排放 单位GDP碳排放 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学] F127