我国天然气供需安全的系统动力学分析  

Supply/Demand Safety Analysis for Natural Gas in China Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：史立军[1] 周泓[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《中国软科学》2012年第3期162-169,共8页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(重点)资助项目(70531010)

摘　　要：发展天然气,是改变我国能源过度依靠煤炭的不利现状、降低环境污染、提高资源利用效率的关键举措,因此,保障我国未来天然气供需安全将显得尤为重要。本文从这一视角出发,运用系统动力学方法,建立了我国天然气供需预测模型,对我国未来天然气供需趋势进行了预测,进行了天然气消费量的参数模拟实验,提出了促进天然气资源开发利用的政策建议。To promote the development of natural gas is an essential strategy in China,which can effectively change our ill structure of energy excessively relying on coal,reduce the pollution to environment,and improve the utilization efficiency.Hence it is very important to ensure the safety of natural gas supply/demand.For this purpose,the system dynamic method is employed in this paper to study the safety situation of natural gas in China.The forecasting model for supply/demand of natural gas is developed,and the growing trend of this energy in the future years is predicted.Finally,some advices for making relative development and utilization policy are proposed based upon the comprehensive simulation experiments.

关 键 词：天然气供需安全 系统动力学 供需预测 趋势分析 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]