攻击性驾驶行为选择模型及影响因素敏感度分析  

Selected Model and Sensitivity Analysis of Aggressive Driving Behavior

作　　者：冯忠祥[1] 刘静[2] 李阳阳[3] 张卫华[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学交通运输工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]安徽建筑工业学院机械与电气工程学院,安徽合肥230601 [3]长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2012年第2期106-112,共7页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51178158);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2011HGQC1018;2011HGBZ0936;CHD2012JC062)

摘　　要：基于行为学理论和非集计方法,以160名驾驶人为研究对象,确定了影响驾驶人攻击性驾驶行为选择的影响因素变量及取值方法,建立了攻击性驾驶行为选择模型(多项Logit模型)。运用弹性值理论进行各变量对攻击性驾驶选择行为的影响程度与过程敏感度分析;最后选取58名驾驶人的驾驶行为数据进行计算,验证模型的有效性。结果表明:驾驶人人格和其他车辆违法情况2个因素对驾驶人攻击性驾驶行为影响较大,起决定性作用;该模型计算值与量表判定值相对误差在10%左右,模型精度可满足实际使用要求。Taking 160 drivers as the research object,the influence factors of their aggressive driving behavior were analyzed through the theory of behavior and modeling method of disaggregate discrete choice.In the research,the authors determined variables for the influence factors of aggressive driving behavior choice and the ways to obtain their values,and developed a multinomial Logit（MNL） model.The influence degree and process to aggressive driving behavior were analyzed by elasticity theory.Another 58 drivers behavior data were selected to testify the model＇s validity.The result shows that the personality of the drivers and violation of other vehicle are the crucial factors to aggressive driving behavior,with the relative error of 10% between judgment data of scale and computational values by MNL,therefore the model accuracy can meet the actual requirements.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通安全 非集计模型 攻击性驾驶行为 多项Logit模型 

分 类 号：U491.254[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]