趋势外推预测法预测企业产量  

Trend extrapolation forecasting method to predict enterprise production

作　　者：关革强[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西工业职业技术学院,广西南宁530001

出　　处：《西南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第2期214-218,共5页Journal of Southwest Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：趋势外推预测法在企业产量的预测中具有较好的预测效果,它对收集的数据进行差分,将原始时间序列数据转化为平稳序列建立动态序列,利用回归方程的运算方法,建立回归方程,并利用F检验考察其显著性,以利于判别回归方程的实用价值.本文利用某市统计局提供的某产品产量连续31年的真实数据进行方法的应用,其效果良好.Trend extrapolation forecasting production forecast in the enterprise has a good prediction results.It is the choice of historical data by using the difference to the original time series into stationary series,ie,using difference smoothing the data to non-stationary series to stationary series,create a dynamic sequence,the computing method of regression equation,regression equations,and investigated by testing its significance,in order to facilitate the practical value of discriminant regression equation.Statistics provided by this paper is about the product output of a city in the past 31 years.The application of the method on real data shows that the effect is good.

关 键 词：趋势外推 平稳序列 企业产量 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]