我国道路伤害的发展趋势和决定因素分析(1949～1998年)  

Secular trend and determinant of road injury in China (1949～1998)

作　　者：池桂波[1] 王声涌[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学医学院流行病学教研室,广州510632

出　　处：《中华创伤杂志》2000年第4期202-203,共2页Chinese Journal of Trauma

基　　金：国务院侨务办公室重点学科科学研究基金!资助项目(文教发 :1 998;1 75);广东省卫生厅医学科学研究基金!资助项目(A1 9982 83)

摘　　要：目的　探讨我国道路伤害的特征、发展趋势及其决定因素。　方法　采用国家统计局、公安部交通管理局和疾病监测中心有关数据库资料 ,评价我国城市机动化程度、交通安全水平和人身安全水平。　结果　 1949～ 1997年来我国道路伤害发生数增加到 5 8.45倍 (5 92 2～ 34 612 9) ,死亡人数增加到 91.6 3倍 (85 2～ 780 6 7)。城市机动化程度 1949年为 0 .0 9‰ ,1975年为0 .99‰ ,1985年为 5 .30‰ ,1998年为 15 .97‰。 1998年共发生道路伤害 34 6 12 9起 ,死亡 780 6 7人 ,受伤 2 2 2 72 1人。　结论　道路伤害受机动化程度和交通环境的共同影响 ,交通安全水平提高 ,人身安全水平也随之提高。Objective To evaluate the relationship between motorization and traffic mortality by analyzing the motorized extent of cities and change of the level of personal safety and traffic safety, and describe the secular trend of road injury by analyzing the epidemiological features and determinants of fatality rate. Methods Data were got from National Statistical Office, the Ministry of Communications, the Traffic Administration Bureau and Annual of PRI. Evaluation indexes: (1) motorized extent of cities (MEC), (2) level of traffic safety (LTS), (3) level of personal safety (LPS). Results MEC increased with annual proportions of 0.09‰ in 1949, 0.99‰ in 1975, 5.30‰ in 1985 and 15.97‰ in 1998. In 1998 there were 346 129 traumas caused by road crashes, of which 78 067 persons died and 222 721 were injured. Conclusions The personal safety is affected by both the synergism of motorization and the road safety level. LPS improvement is based on LTS improvement.

关 键 词：交通事故 发展趋势 决定因素分析 中国 

分 类 号：R181.39[医药卫生—流行病学]