中国汽车制造业集中度与利润率动态关系检验——基于VAR模型方法  

Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Concentration and Profitability in China's Auto Manufacturing Industry Based on VAR Model

作　　者：占明珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉纺织大学外经贸学院,湖北武汉430077

出　　处：《广东商学院学报》2012年第2期4-12,共9页Journal of Guangdong University of Business Studies

基　　金：2012年湖北省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2012Q155)

摘　　要：自20世纪50年代以来,产业组织理论关于集中度与利润率关系的研究持久常新。从标准产业分类中三位码行业着手,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型考察中国汽车制造业集中度与利润率的动态关系,结果发现:两者间存在着长期的均衡关系与短期的微调关系,与众多假说结论不完全一致。原因在于,中国汽车制造业合资品牌市场势力强大,自主品牌市场势力弱小。因此,产业政策应注重培育与扶持对中国汽车制造业国际市场势力。Since the 1950s, the theory of industrial organization has made an ongoing research on the re- lationship between concentration and profitability. The paper attempts to examine the dynamic relationship between concentration and profitability in China＇s auto manufacturing industry by using Vector Autoregressive Model （VAR） with three-code sectors in SIC and jumping out of the static visual field. The study finds that there exists a long-term equilibrium and short-term fine-tuning relationship between them, which is inconsis- tent with the general assumption of a lot of researches. This is because the market power of China＇s auto joint venture brands is strong, but that of its national own brands is weak. Therefore, it suggests that the industri- al policies should focus on cultivating and supporting the international market power of China＇ s auto manu- facturing industry.

关 键 词：产业经济 汽车制造业 集中度 利润率 VAR模型 国际市场势力 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F426.471