农业自然灾害对通货膨胀的影响——基于动态面板的实证分析  

The Impact of Agricultural Natural Disasters on Inflation:Based on Dynamic Panel Model

作　　者：唐文进[1] 许桂华[1] 徐晓伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2012年第2期2-7,共6页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(08AJL006);国家自然科学基金项目(70773119);中南财经政法大学2011年度"研究生创新教育计划"项目(2011B0403)

摘　　要：通过将农业自然灾害作为外生冲击引入"三角"模型,建立涵盖通货膨胀惯性、超额需求和农业自然灾害外生冲击三者关系的动态面板模型进行实证分析,结果表明:就全国范围和中部地区而言,农业自然灾害对我国通货膨胀具有明显的影响,而东部和西部地区表现不显著。值得关注的是,农业自然灾害会造成当期通货膨胀水平下降,表明农业自然灾害造成的需求负向冲击大于供给负向冲击,政府相关部门应重视农业自然灾害引起的需求抑制作用。By introducing agricultural natural disasters as exogenous shock to ＂triangle＂ model, the dynamic panel model covering inflation inertia, excess demand and agricultural natural disasters exogenous shocks is established. The empirical results indicate that： agricultural natural disasters have obvious impacts on the inflation in the nationwide and central regions, however the effect is not significant in the east and west regions. It is remarkable that the agricultural natural disasters will cause the current inflation levels to drop and that the negative impact which agricultural natural disasters caused on demand is greater than supply. The relevant government departments should pay more attention to the demand inhibition which agricultural natural disasters caused.

关 键 词：农业自然灾害 “三角”模型 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]