翁氏模型在页岩气井产能预测中的应用  

APPLICATION OF WENG＇ S MODEL IN THE PRODUCTIVITY PREDICTION OF THE GAS WELLS IN SHALE ROCK

作　　者：李武广[1] 鲍方[2] 曲成[3] 杨胜来[1] 孙晓旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学石油工程教育部重点实验室,北京102249 [2]承德石油高等专科学校石油工程系,河北承德067000 [3]中国石油冀东油田分公司勘探开发建设项目部,河北唐山063200

出　　处：《大庆石油地质与开发》2012年第2期98-101,共4页Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目（50874114）.

摘　　要：产量预测是页岩气井开采过程中必不可少的环节。为了评价页岩气井的生产能力，预测页岩气井高峰产量、开采年限、最终采收率、可采储量以及产量递减，根据翁氏模型理论基础，结合多元线性回归系数求解法，对实际页岩气生产井进行产能预测，分析页岩气井产量变化规律。结果表明，翁氏模型预测法的预测数据与实际生产数据相关性较好，所得的平均误差率为11．88％，具有较好的可靠性。利用翁氏模型对页岩气井产能进行预测是一种比较实用的方法，为页岩气井的开采提供理论指导，也对深入了解页岩气藏的开发动态和提高采收率具有一定意义。The productivity prediction is an essential link during the development of shale gas wells. In order to e- valuate the production capacity of these wells, it is necessary to predict the peak production, production life, ulti- mate recovery, recoverable reserves, and production decline and so on. According to the theoretical basement of Weng＇ s Model and integrating with the solution-seeking method of multiple linear regressions, the productivity pre- diction of actual shale gas wells is predicted and moreover the changing laws of the gas production are analyzed. The results show that the predicted data by the model are well correlated with the actual ones; the obtained average error rate is 11.88% , which has much better reliability. As stated above, the model is one of very practical ap- proaches to predict shale-gas-well productivity and furthermore the achievements provide theoretical guidance for the exploitation of shale gas wells. At the same time, the studies possess certain significances for deep understanding the development performances and enhancing the recovery of shale gas reservoirs.

关 键 词：页岩气井 翁氏模型 多元线性回归 产能预测 

分 类 号：TE349[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]