商业周期理论视角下中国经济现况  

China's Economic Situation in the Perspective of Business Cycle Theory

作　　者：刘健俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《商业经济》2012年第7期1-2,76,共3页Business & Economy

摘　　要：在商业经济周期理论视角下,中国经济自2008年全球性信贷危机以来,先后经历了通胀性繁荣、信用紧缩以及即将可能步入衰退等阶段,这与该理论所提及到的情况基本吻合。由于我国尚未建立完善、健全的自由市场体系,在缺乏政府政策指导下,市场自我调节过程会缺乏方向及效率。政府可采取以新政策治旧政策后遗症的办法,在经济完全陷入衰退之前,以政策为手段,以缩短调节时间及加快经济恢复为目标,做好经济数据收集分析工作,并担当市场主导者的角色。In the perspective of business cycle theory, since the global credit crisis in 2008, China＇s economy has gone through the inflationary boom and the credit crunch phases, and is stepping towards a possible recession, which is basically consistent with the theory. Since China has not yet founded a perfect and sound free-market system, the market self-regulatien process will possibly be misled and inefficient without the government＇s policy guidance. The government can adopt a new policy to treat the complication of an old policy, using the policy as a means, aiming to shorten the regulatory time and speed up the economic recovery, analyzing and collecting economic data, and playing the market leading role before the economy plunging into a recession.

关 键 词：中国经济现状 商业周期理论 信贷危机 对策建议 

分 类 号：F420[经济管理—产业经济]