模糊灰关联分析方法在故障树分析中的应用  

Application of fuzzy grey relational analysis in fault tree analysis

作　　者：周真[1] 马德仲[1] 于晓洋[1] 樊尚春[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学测控技术与通信工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]北京航空航天大学仪器科学与光电工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《电机与控制学报》2012年第3期60-64,共5页Electric Machines and Control

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)重点资助项目(2008AA042207);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)专题项目(2009AA04Z407);黑龙江省研究生创新科研资金项目(YJSCX2011-048HLJ)

摘　　要：针对传统的故障树分析方法在分析具有模糊性、灰色性特点的多状态不确定性复杂系统时存在的不足,提出利用模糊灰关联分析方法对传统的故障树分析方法进行改进:用三角模糊数来表示基本事件的模糊概率;计算顶上事件模糊概率和基本事件的模糊重要度;以基本事件模糊重要度作为参考列,以最小割集组成的特征矩阵作为比较列,通过计算关联系数进而求出最小割集所代表的故障模式与顶上事件之间的灰色关联度。应用该方法对风力发电机系统中风轮叶片故障树进行分析,找出了系统的薄弱环节,为预防事故的发生,改进系统可靠性和安全性提供了理论依据。It is unsatisfactory to apply the classical fault tree analysis（FTA） to the multi-state uncertainty complex system with fuzzy and grey characteristics.So the method,fuzzy grey relational analysis,was applied to improve the FTA.The triangular fuzzy number was used to denote the fuzzy probability of the basic event.The fuzzy probability of the top event and fuzzy significances of basic events were calculated.Then,the set made up of fuzzy significances of basic events was taken as a reference sequence and the characteristic matrix made up of minimal cut sets was taken as a comparative sequence.grey relation degrees between the top event and minimal cut sets were computed after getting incidence coefficients between them.The fault tree of rotor blades in the wind power generation was analyzed by this method.The results can provide theoretical bases for finding out weaknesses,preventing faults,improving reliability and safety of the system.

关 键 词：故障树分析 模糊重要度 灰色关联分析 风力发电机 三角模糊数 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]