我国粮食消费变化特征及未来需求预测  

Change Analysis and Demand Forecast of Grain Consumption in China

作　　者：李志强[1] 吴建寨[1] 王东杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国食物与营养》2012年第3期38-42,共5页Food and Nutrition in China

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"农产品数量安全智能分析与预警关键技术支撑系统及示范"(项目编号:2009BADA9B00);农业部项目"农业信息预警研究";农业部948项目(项目编号:2011-Z5)

摘　　要：在分析我国粮食消费变化及主要影响因素的基础上,基于EMM模型对我国未来粮食消费趋势进行了预测。结果表明,近年来我国粮食消费结构与品种结构及空间布局变动明显;人口增加、城镇化进程、膳食结构变化、粮食加工业快速发展及生物质能源等是影响我国粮食消费变动的主要因素;预计未来我国粮食消费总需求仍将平稳增长,口粮消费继续稳定下降,饲料粮、加工用粮为我国粮食需求增长的主体。各粮食品种间,预计对稻谷和小麦的需求稳中略降,对玉米、大豆的需求呈现规模和比重双增态势。Based on the analysis of grain consumption and its main influence factors, grain demand in China form 2015 to 2030 was es- timated according to the Economy-wide Multi-market Model. The resuhs showed that the consumption structure, variety structure and spatial distribution of China＇s grain consumption changed obviously in the recent 5 years, for which population increase, urbanization process, di- etary pattern, industry use and application of bio-energy were the main influence factors. It was also estimated that the total demand of grain consumption would keep stable growth, among which the grain ration would decrease gradually and the demands of both industry and feed would become the main body of grain consumption increase. As for the grain varieties, the demand of rice and wheat would decrease stably, but corn and soybean would increase in both their amounts and ratio.

关 键 词：粮食消费 变化 需求预测 中国 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]