我国碳排放量情景预测研究——基于环境规制视角  

China's Carbon Emissions Scenario Prediction——Based on the Perspective of Environmental Regulation

作　　者：王怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北石油大学经济管理学院,黑龙江大庆163318

出　　处：《经济与管理》2012年第4期27-30,41,共5页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(10CGL053)

摘　　要：国民经济的迅速发展,碳排放问题已经成为社会关注的焦点,低碳经济发展模式成为实现可持续发展的重要途径。估算1994-2009年中国碳排放量和环境规制强度数据,将环境规制因素纳入到Kaya公式中,构建改进的人均碳排放量分解计算公式,情景预测2010-2020年中国人均碳排放量。结果表明,不同情境下我国人均碳排放量增幅有较大差异,碳排放量与经济增长之间存在着密切联系。Carbon emissions have become the focus of social attention during the period of rapid development of national economy. Low-carbon economy mode becomes the important pathway to realize the sustainable development. This paper estimates the China＇s carbon emissions and environmental regulation from 1994 to 2009, constructs the improved decomposition formula of per capital carbon emissions, which environmental regulation was put into Kaya formula. Finally, the paper scene predicts the China＇s per capital carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020. The result shows that China＇s per capital carbon emissions should have large differences under the different scenarios. It would closely contact between carbon emissions and economic growth.

关 键 词：环境规制 碳排放 情景预测 经济增长 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]