北京地区冰雹灾害风险评估模型及风险区划  

Risk assessment model and regionalization of hail disaster in Beijing area

作　　者：董鹏捷[1,2] 王建捷[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]北京市人工影响天气办公室,北京100089 [3]北京市气象局,北京100089

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2012年第1期29-34,共6页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：北京市科技计划项目"城市突发气象灾害风险防范与快速响应关键技术研究"(Z090506016609001)

摘　　要：利用1980—2009年北京地区降雹及数字高程模型(DEM)数据、土地类型、人口密度资料,选取降雹频次和地形高程标准差分别作为灾害危险性和孕灾环境敏感性评估因子,以种植面积和车辆保有量作为冰雹灾害承灾体的典型代表特征,结合人工防雹减灾能力及灾害损失等资料,通过多元线性回归的方法,建立北京地区冰雹灾害综合风险评估模型,由此得到风险区划。评估结果表明,北京地区冰雹灾害风险以中、低度风险区为主,高、极高风险区主要出现在山区,极高风险区集中出现在延庆北部;城市中心区以中度风险为主,也有高风险点存在。Using the data of hail during the period from 1980 to 2009,Digital Elevation Models（DEM） data,land types,population density,choosing frequency of hail and standard deviation of height as the assessment factors of hazard and sensibility of disaster-developing background respectively,and taking planting areas and motor vehicle possessing quantity as bearing disaster objects,the model of risk assessment is established and the regionalization of hail disaster in Beijing area is obtained by the method of multiple linear regressions.The results of evaluation indicate that the mid-low risk is the main grade in Beijing.The high risk is mostly in mountainous region and the region of the highest risk is in the north of Yanqing county.The heartland of Beijing belongs to the moderate grade except some high risk region.

关 键 词：冰雹灾害 多元回归 风险评估 北京地区 

分 类 号：S427[农业科学—植物保护]