2010年9月上旬河南一次大暴雨过程诊断与预报分析  

Diagnosis and forecast analysis of an extra rainstorm event in Henan in early September of 2010

作　　者：赵培娟[1,2] 吴蓁[1,2] 职旭[1,2] 袁小超[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局.河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2012年第1期44-51,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：河南省黄淮海河流域暴雨估测预报系统研发项目(Z200801)

摘　　要：利用常规气象观测资料和NCEP1×1间隔6 h的再分析资料,对2010年9月6—7日出现在河南的一次大暴雨过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:(1)高纬冷空气沿乌拉尔山东侧呈东北—西南向高压脊前偏北气流南下,在新疆地区堆积形成闭合冷性低涡,该低涡中分裂出低槽携带冷空气东移,在河南省境内与副热带高压边缘暖湿气流汇合,导致了这次大暴雨过程;(2)贝加尔湖附近的下滑槽东移南下,引导冷空气侵入沿切变线东移进入河南省的西南低涡,使该处大气斜压性增强,低涡发展,导致豫北及豫东地区中低层辐合明显加强,促使降水加强;(3)此次过程,副热带高压呈带状,脊线稳定在26—27 N,副高边缘西南暖湿气流与中、低空西南低涡或其前部的切变线共同作用,呈现出河南省区域暴雨的典型天气形势。此外,应用河南省暴雨预报模型结合物理量诊断客观预报方法,能较好地预报这次大暴雨过程的落区及量级,表明该方法对区域性暴雨、大暴雨预报有较好的参考作用。Based on routine meteorological observation data and NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis data,an extra rainstorm event in Henan province from September 6 to 7 in 2010 was analyzed.The results indicate the following.（1） The establishment of high-pressure ridge from SW to NE at east of Ural Mountains guides the high latitude cold air accumulated in Xinjiang area and leads to the formation of a closed cold vortex in the area,and the low trough split off from the closed vortex continuously moves with cold air eastward and meets with the warm and humid air at subtropical edge in Henan province and produces an extra rainstorm.（2） Glide cold trough near Lake Baikal moves eastward and down south,guiding cool air to intrude into the southwest vortex moving along the shear line eastward into the Henan province,leading to the atmospheric baroclinicity enhancement and the vortex development.The middle and low level convergence is significantly strengthened in the north and east Henan province,and the precipitation development is promoted.（3） The subtropical high took on the shape of zones and its ridge line was stable at 26°-27°N.The interaction between southwest warm wet air current at the edge of the subtropical high and southwest vortex in middle level and low level（or the front shear line） is a typical weather situation of this rainstorm in Henan area.In addition,application of forecast model of torrential rain in Henan province and the physical diagnosis method of objective forecast to this rainstorm forecast can better forecast the rainfall area and precipitation magnitude showing the method has a good reference to forecast regional rainstorm and extra rainstorm.

关 键 词：大暴雨 西南低涡 物理量诊断 暴雨预报模型 客观预报方法 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]