基于AREM模式的贝叶斯洪水概率预报试验  

Experiments of Bayesian probability flood forecasting based on the AREM model

作　　者：殷志远[1] 彭涛[1] 王俊超[1] 沈铁元[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉430074

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2012年第1期59-65,共7页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY200806002);武汉暴雨研究所基本业务专项课题(1014;1203);2012年度华中区域气象中心科技发展基金推广项目(QY-T-201201;QY-T-201202)

摘　　要：为提高预见期内洪水预报精度,选取湖北省漳河水库2006—2008年汛期逐小时流域降水量、流量资料以及武汉暴雨研究所提供的相应时段AREM模式预报的00—60 h逐小时降水预报产品作为研究资料,引入贝叶斯概率统计模型对AREM模式的降水预报进行订正,并分别对订正前后的预报降水进行对比分析;其后,进一步将AREM模式预报订正前后的降水预报值分别输入新安江水文模型进行洪水预报试验。结果表明,订正后的预报降水比订正前的精度有所提高,均方根误差减小幅度小于10%;检验期场次洪水的平均确定性系数提高10.66%,平均洪峰相对误差减小3.05%,洪水预报精度在一定程度上有所提高。To improve the accuracy of the flood prediction in forecast period,the Bayesian probabilistic model is introduced to correct the precipitation forecasted by AREM model using the hourly precipitation,flow data of the flood season of Zhanghe Reservoir in Hubei province from 2006 to 2008 and the corresponding 00-60 h hourly AREM forecasting precipitation provided by IHR（Institute of Heavy Rain in WuHan）.The corrected and non corrected precipitation are analyzed comparatively,and then the both corrected and non corrected forecasting precipitation by AREM model are input into Xin＇an-jiang hydrology flood forecast model.The results show that the corrected forecasting precipitation has the higher accuracy than that of non corrected one.The root mean square error was decreased by less than 10%.The average flood deterministic coefficient increases by 10.66%,the average relative error of peak reduces by 3.05% in the verification period.It improved the precision of flood forecast to some extent.

关 键 词：AREM模式 贝叶斯概率预报 正态分位数转换 新安江水文模型 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]