突发冲击对中国各产业的经济影响--基于IMPLAN系统的分析  

Economic Influences of Sudden Impacts on China's Industries:Based on the Analysis of IMPLAN System

作　　者：唐文进[1] 宋朝杰[1] 周文[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院 [2]江汉大学商学院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2012年第4期50-57,共8页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划“非常规金融突发事件的动态演变规律研究”(NCET-10-0828);国家自然科学基金项目“突发公共事件对中国宏观经济的影响及其优化管理研究”(70773119);国家社科基金重点项目“应对突发冲击的宏观调控预案研究”(08AJL006)

摘　　要：作为一种经济冲击评估系统,IMPLAN在国外已得到广泛应用。利用有效改良后的IMPLAN系统就不同产业受到突发冲击后对宏观经济的直接、间接、引致影响及总影响进行模拟分析的结果表明:不同产业遭受突发冲击后产生的影响各异,如废品废料、计算机制造及钢铁冶炼等产业的直接影响较大,而社会福利、金融等产业的引致影响较大。因此,应基于各产业的不同性质施行有针对性的差异化政策,以增进产业安全保证宏观经济的健康平稳运行。As an economic impact analysis system, IMPLAN has been applied widely in the foreign countries. Using effectively improved IMPLAN, the paper has simulated the direct, indirect, induced and entire influences of different industries impacted by emergencies on macroeconomy. The result indicates that after sudden impact, different industries cause different influences. Such industries as waste salvaging, computer manufacturing and metal smelting, have greater direct influences, while the industries such as social welfare, financial industries have more considerable induced influ- ences. Therefore, to enhance the industrial security and macroeconomic stability, diversified policies should be implemented based on various characters of every industry.

关 键 词：突发冲击 产业经济影响 IMPLAN系统 

分 类 号：F222.31[经济管理—国民经济]