基于序次Probit模型的航道船舶碰撞危险度研究  

Risk Degree Analysis of Ship Collision Risk in Channel Based on Ordered Probit Model

作　　者：文元桥[1] 张恒[1] 万品[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第2期134-139,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(40805063/D0512);浙江省交通厅科技计划项目(2011W04)

摘　　要：船舶碰撞严重威胁着船舶水上航行的安全,船舶碰撞危险度的研究能够为船舶避碰提供有效的预防手段和合理的科学依据。选取航道船舶碰撞危险度作为状态变量,选取船舶会遇方式、风速和能见度作为控制变量,运用序次Probit模型拟合出碰撞危险度状态方程。分别对人为判断和序次Probit模型的碰撞危险度利用插值技术,描绘出控制变量对状态变量的作用效果变化特征图。研究结果表明,拟合状态方程可以良好地表征系统状态的连续变化特征,序次Probit模型能够有效克服人为判断的不确定性。Ship collision poses a serious threat to the safety of navigation. However, risk degree analysis is an effective way to avoid ship collision. The collision risk degree was taken as the state variable, en- counter situation, wind velocity and visibility as the control variables. The ordered Probit model was used to fit a state equation which showed the risk degree. By interpolating the collision risk degree got from hu- man judgment and ordered Probit model, a tendency chart that depicted the effect of control variables on state variable was got. The results show that collision risk degree has a strong correlation with the control variables and ordered Probit model can eliminate the uncertainty of human judgment effectively.

关 键 词：碰撞 序次Probit模型 人为判断 危险度 航道船舶 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]