北京市人口老龄化系数预测  

The Prediction of Aging Coefficient in Beijing

作　　者：吕盛鸽[1] 宣丹萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学经贸学院统计系 [2]杭州电子科技大学经贸学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2012年第3期27-31,共5页Statistical Research

摘　　要：本文利用生命表理论、联合国平均预期寿命增长模型及年龄移算法,预测得到北京市老年人口峰值期为2037年。根据北京市1978—2010年户籍人口数据,建立预测值满足老年人口峰值期的向量自回归模型。在设定市际净迁移人数及低、中、高三种总和生育率的方案下,利用模型预测北京市2011—2050年的户籍总人数、老年人数以及老龄化系数。预测结果表明:在低、中、高三种方案下,总人数分别在2023年、2024年和2025年达到峰值,峰值分别为1377万人、1389万人和1397万人,老年人数均在2037年达到峰值242万人,在预测期内老龄化系数一直呈上升趋势,至2050年依次为21.25%、20.25%和19.82%。最后,针对预测结果提出了应对北京市人口老龄化的建议。By using the life table theory,the UN＇s growth model of average life expectancy and the age-shift algorithm,this article predicts that the peak period of elderly population in Beijing will be the year of 2037.According to the data of the household registration population in Beijing from 1978 to 2010,we build the VAR model whose elderly population prediction meets the peak period of elderly population.We use this model to predict the total population,elderly population and aging coefficient of Beijing from 2011 to 2050 by setting a forecasting method of calculating the future trends of inter-city net migration and low,medium,high total fertility rates.The result shows that based on the forecast of the low,medium and high total fertility rates,the total population of Beijing will respectively peak in 2023,2024 and 2025,with the number of 13.77 million,13.89 million and 13.97 million,while the elderly population will peak in 2037 with the number of 2.42 million,and the aging coefficient,which will respectively reach 21.25%,20.25% and 19.82% in 2050,shows a rising trend during the prediction period.Finally,with regard to the predicted result,the article proposes suggestions on coping with the aging of the population in Beijing.

关 键 词：户籍人口 老龄化系数 峰值期 总和生育率 VAR模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]