CEPA改变了两地贸易对香港经济增长的影响吗?  

Does CEPA Change the Influence of Trade between Hongkong and Chinese Mainland on Hongkong Economic Growth?

作　　者：周泳宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2012年第3期61-66,共6页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71103075);广东省自然科学基金(9451009001002715)的资助

摘　　要：CEPA促进了两地(香港和中国内地)贸易,是否也改变了两地贸易对香港经济增长的影响机制?本文对CEPA实施前后两地贸易和香港经济增长进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,CEPA实施以来,两地贸易在香港经济中的地位更为显著,但其作用受到国内外经济增长因素的影响。原因在于,CEPA更显著地促使转口贸易成为国内外经济增长对香港溢出的重要渠道,而不在于直接拉动符合CEPA优惠条款的贸易部分,这反映出市场主体在实施CEPA以来的乐观预期。CEPA promotes the trade between Hong Kong and Chinese mainland.However,does it also change the influence of the trade on Hongkong Economic Growth？ This paper studies the relationship between the trade and Hongkong＇s economic growth before and after the implementation of CEPA.The analysis shows that the importance of the trade become greater after CEPA＇s implementation,but it is affected by international macroeconomic situations.The reason is that CEPA promotes the entrepot to be an important channel of economic growth spillovers to Hongkong rather than promotes the trade which benefit from preferential terms.The result reflects the optimistic expectation after CEPA＇s implementation.

关 键 词：CEPA 香港 贸易 溢出 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]