各国参与国际气候合作影响因素的实证分析  

Factors Affecting International Climate Cooperation: An Empirical Study

作　　者：刘昌义[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2012年第4期72-85,158,共14页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：通过构建一个各国减排意愿和行动的计量模型,作者分析了一国参与国际气候合作的影响因素,认为环境脆弱性变量对各国减排意愿和行动起的作用不是很显著,这表明这一变量目前还不是大多数国家参与国际气候合作的决定性因素。而减排成本是影响各国减排意愿和行动的决定性因素,减排成本越高,减排承诺和行动水平越低。虽然民主变量对各国减排承诺影响显著,但对实际减排行动影响并不是很显著,这表明发达国家在气候变化问题上存在"言行不一"现象,也表明"民主-环境"这一假说并不适用于气候变化问题。另外,一国排放是否越过峰值对一国参与国际气候合作有决定性影响,而一国低碳发展水平和低碳贸易比较优势对参与国际气候合作的影响并不显著。作者认为,目前影响各国参与国际气候合作的主要影响因素仍然是经济因素,减排成本对各国减排意愿和行动具有决定性意义。相比之下,环境脆弱性、国内民主制度都是次要影响因素。目前只有少数发达国家具备低碳经济和贸易比较优势,因此低碳比较优势还不是一个具有普遍性的解释变量。This paper has constructed an econometric model to study the factors affecting the participation and performance of member states in international climate change cooperation. The empirical analysis shows: (1) the explanatory variable of environment vulnerability is not very robust and significant while the mitigation cost variables highly significant; (2) the democracy variable is significant to the policy output, but ambiguous to policy outcome; (3) the variable that whether a country has passed the peak of carbon dioxide emission is very significant and decisive; (4) the comparative advantage of low carbon development and trade are not significant. The author argues that the most important factor affecting international climate change cooperation is the mitigation cost, and the comparative advantage of low carbon is only owned by a few developed countries and cannot be a worldwide explanatory variable in this respect.

关 键 词：气候变化 减排成本 环境脆弱性 民主 贸易 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]